Greater Vancouver Housing Forecast for 2009 by RE/MAX
Greater Vancouver Area
The 2009 market will favour buyers. Inventory levels are expected to increase by 10-to-15 per cent over 2008. The average selling price is forecast to depreciate by 10 per cent to $440,000 by year-end, while the number of homes sold should level off at 5,800 units, down almost 11 per cent from 2008. After a serious six-year run that saw housing values cross the $600,000 threshold, residential real estate in the Greater Vancouver Area has run out of steam. While the market began its transition in the Spring of 2008, the occasional multiple offer occurred on well-priced or ideally located properties. Global economic volatility in the final quarter triggered a free-fall in housing sales and a substantial upswing in inventory levels. By year-end, the number of homes sold will slide to 26,000 units, a level not seen since 2001, but percentage gains earlier in the year should prop-up average price two per cent to $585,000 in 2008.
While the housing market suffered a setback in 2008, provincial and local economies are relatively stable. Economic performance remains supported by heavy investment, developments in natural gas, and infrastructure building ahead of the 2010 Winter Olympics. The local government’s multi-billion dollar investment in infrastructure will highlight green technology and streamline traffic and people moving through the city. Th e Port Mann/Highway One improvement project extending to Langley is slated for completion in 2013, while Translink’s Canada Line is expected to be finished prior to the Olympics. GDP growth in the Greater Vancouver Area is expected to climb to 2.1 per cent in 2009, up from 1.2 per cent in 2008
Homebuyers who adopted a wait-and-see attitude in the final quarter of 2008 are expected to be first out of the gate in 2009. Driven by pent-up demand, these early purchasers will likely land the best deals in the market. Listings are forecast to surge in the spring, as sellers take advantage of increased demand in the marketplace. Lower interest rates should also stimulate sales activity. Creative financing and vendor takeback mortgages—popular in the 1980s—will find a place in the market once again. Affordability is expected to improve significantly, prompting first-time buyers to enter the market. A projected softening in condominium values, combined with a serious oversupply of product, may prove particularly enticing
to entry-level purchasers. By mid-year, the market should show signs of recovery as inventory levels tighten. Consumer confidence levels, job security and positive economic stimulus will be vital to the overall outlook for residential housing in 2009. By the end of 2009, housing sales in the Greater Vancouver Area are predicted to match 2008 levels, while average price is expected to soften to $545,000.
View the entire report here: RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook 2009
The Schacter Team - Langley Real Estate